Global Research Unlocked

A changing Federal Reserve

Please join Sphia Salim in discussion with Aditya Bhave, head of US economics research, Mark Cabana, head of US rates strategy, and Alex Cohen, senior G10 FX strategist. We will review Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair nomination hearing, with a particular focus on his Inflation views, his comments on the Fed's balance sheet, and the potential for a new Treasury-Fed accord. We will also look ahead to the April FOMC meeting and discuss implications for the rates and FX markets.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Inflation markets

Please join Ralf Preusser in discussion with Mark Capleton and Meghan Swiber to discuss opportunities in inflation markets. Commodity price swings have been very pronounced since the start of hostilities in the Middle East. We will discuss market dynamics as they have translated into real yields, breakevens, and inflation swaps in sometimes surprising fashion and flag what we consider to be interesting opportunities and market developments.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Asia’s defense awakening: Higher domestic spend, more exports

South Korea emerging as a breakout defense producer
Asia's defense transformation is emerging as a compelling and investable growth theme, as the region shifts from import dependence to scaled manufacturing and exports. The region is expanding its role in Western defense supply chains as spending rises as a percentage of GDP. South Korea stands out as a key beneficiary, gaining market share across Europe and the Middle East as expanding, diversified order books improve earnings visibility, supporting a valuation re-rating. With cost advantages, deep industrial capacity, and multi‑year backlogs driven by global rearmament and inventory replenishment, Asian defense companies are positioned for durable, multi‑year returns. Still, geopolitics works both ways and the desire for domestic supply chains will play a role too.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Ceasefire, rates and the US consumer

Ralf Preusser was joined in conversation by Bruno Braizinha, Sophia Salim, and David Tinsley on Friday, 10 April 2026, at 9:00 a.m. ET / 2:00 p.m. BST / 3:00 p.m. CEST. The discussion covered the impact of the ceasefire announcement on rates and volatility markets and included a deep dive into the U.S. consumer.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

No longer overbought, still advantaged; Emerging Markets

Commodity exposure? There's a region for that
Prior to the Middle East conflict, investor sentiment toward Emerging Markets had turned increasingly bullish, driven by momentum and demand for assets positioned for US dollar weakness; while the war in Iran and the effective closure of the Hormuz Strait disrupted that optimism, David Hauner and David Beker argue the structural EM case remains intact. Latin America-particularly Brazil and Argentina-appears well positioned in a world of higher commodity and energy price floors, despite continued energy‑shock risks. Attractive valuations, improving fundamentals, and persistent global underallocation continue to support EM, with Latin America standing out as a key supplier of energy and commodities-Brazil benefiting as an energy exporter amid an easing cycle, and Argentina offering reform‑driven, off‑index upside.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

The war takes a toll on growth; but more on economic than earnings

Equities drop but S&P earnings resilient for now
Global markets are recalibrating as higher energy prices shift the macro outlook and force a reassessment of growth and inflation. Our commodity strategy team raised forecasts for oil prices and other commodities due to Middle East supply challenges, leading the Global Economics team to lower their global growth estimates. While higher oil prices offer a modest tailwind to energy production and fiscal revenues for some countries, they also mean higher costs and tighter financial conditions, with the net effect being that 2026 GDP estimates were cut in the 0.3-0.5 ppt range. Savita Subramanian highlights that U.S. corporate earnings have remained resilient, supported by strength in energy and tech, and discusses how the recent selloff, combined with positive earnings revisions, informs her view on the S&P 500 and whether earnings are likely to remain relatively unfazed. She also outlines preferred sectors, while we cover the key risks to economic and earnings forecasts from here.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

The Traders’ perspective

Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with G10 rates and FX trading to discuss positioning and market liquidity. In this podcast Ralf and team will discuss how liquidity and positioning unwinds have contributed to considerable gyrations in FX and rates markets. 
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

New payment tech unlikely to keep consumers from riding the rails

Structural drivers of card networks charge ahead
The card networks have historically been considered among the best and highest quality business models in public markets. But more recently, the card network stocks have de-rated as investors have grown concerned about perceived threats, from legislation to AI. Matt O'Neill recently reinstated coverage of the payments group and he joins the podcast to discuss these risks and why he believes fears are generally overstated. Relatedly, he discusses what transactions may look like in the future if consumers employ AI agents to do more of their purchasing and how AI may help with product discovery more imminently. We also address Buy Now Pay Later, which may not be the upstart it once was, but it's a segment where we expect compelling growth ahead, as well as an evolving business model.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
 

US bank liquidity regulations

Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Ralph Axel, Katie Craig and Ebrahim Poonawala on US banks. The call will take place on Fri 20 March at 10 am ET, 2 pm GMT, 3 pm CET. We will discuss US bank liquidity regulations and the impact on bank behaviour, reserve and UST demand, Fed balance sheet and rates.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Central bank trade-offs

Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Bruno Braizinha, Mark Cabana, and Sphia Salim. The conflict in Iran is a negative supply shock for much of the global economy via higher oil prices. Central banks face a deteriorated trade-off between growth and inflation. That trade off differs meaningfully across major markets, as does the repricing we have seen in rate markets. We discuss where we see value, how we expect curves to trade and what hedges look attractive.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Fast tax refunds and slow payments prolong stimulus, esp for high-income

Lower tax payments shift stimulus later into 1H26
We're in the midst of tax season, and BAC data helps us track changes in refunds, payments, and the impact on spending. Refund growth is in the high single digits y/y, but lower tax payments bring total stimulus closer to the ~25% increase we had been expecting. Aditya Bhave explains how lower payments shift the timing of benefits, potentially extending the spending lift through much of the first half of 2026. There's also evidence that higher refunds and lower payments are boosting spend, with a modest inflection since early this year. Middle- and higher‑income consumers appear to benefit most. With much of the lift tied to higher SALT deductions, we examine whether SALT states such as NY, NJ, and CA are seeing stronger spending and how weather and past wildfires may be clouding the data. We finish with whether any further measures could support lower‑income consumers and what to expect from the incoming Fed Chair. 
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
 

Falling bank multiples, elevated risks: AI, credit, and the macro

Banks confront renewed private credit and AI-driven risks
Private credit has remained a persistent concern for banks, and recent events have brought those worries back into focus. At the same time, new fears around AI-driven competition and potential credit deterioration have weighed on the group. Ebrahim Poonawala joins us to discuss how management teams addressed these issues at the recent BofA Financials Conference, the potential defenses that banks have against AI disruption, and the ways AI could enhance efficiency. We also explore how much of this is now reflected in bank valuations, with many large regionals trading back to pre COVID P/E levels despite regulatory and cyclical tailwinds. While our US Economics team does not view a deteriorating macro backdrop as the base case, such a scenario would pose risks for valuation multiples and earnings. 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.