Global Research Unlocked

GLP-1s are shrinking some appetites; broader use poses a prickly challenge

Lower prices are unlocking the next leg of GLP-1 growth
Several years ago, the bullish case for GLP-1 penetration hinged on lower pricing and the availability of oral options-both of these have materialized over the past 18 months. Yet we remain early in the oral GLP-1 ramp, and pricing continues to adjust downward, suggesting ample runway for unit growth in these weight-loss therapies. Peter Galbo discusses the impact on food and beverage we've observed at today's ~10% penetration levels and what may lie ahead, especially as Jason Gerberry outlines where penetration could ultimately land and the improvements expected in side-effect profiles. We also examine intensifying competition within the GLP-1 landscape, as well as the packaged food and beverage segments most at risk-or best positioned to benefit-alongside areas where potential upside may be overstated
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Must Read Research: Size of the Market, World Cup & Paper Goods, Energy Contingencies, and LatAm Elections

This week, we discuss why the size of the market continues to expand, how the World Cup is fueling global beverage demand, contingency plans amidst shifting energy segments, the paths that lie ahead for LatAm countries facing elections and an overhead view of global markets where scale and earnings continue to expand.
 
Disclosure:
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
 

Inflation and the inflation markets

Please join Mark Capleton in discussion with Stephen Juneau, Alessandro Infelise-Zhou and Meghan Swiber on inflation and the inflation markets, covering: the outlook for inflation, where we diverge from the market, and implications for central bank policy and the rates curves.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Bond market selloff

Please join Sphia Salim in conversation with global rates strategists to discuss the broad bond market selloff of the past week. We will explore its drivers across regions and the risks of a further extension of the moves, as well as the policy elements that can cap the rise in yields. We will also present key bond convexity and swaptions ideas in the context of elevated rates volatility.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Why we believe AI reshapes work more so than it reduces overall payrolls

Youth labor in the age of AI adjustment
Though about one-quarter of global jobs are exposed to AI, the Economics team doesn't share the view that AI will usher in mass unemployment. Benson Wu and Nick Stenner discuss their recent report on the topic, part of the Economics team's larger series on AI impact. They discuss several examples of past tech disruptions, many of which wound up favorable for job prospects when initial predictions were for a much less constructive outcome. Benson and Nick discuss youth unemployment, which is often cited as evidence of AI job destruction but they offer a different take and point out what's been improvement in that metric over the last several months. We share our views on the economies best positioned to benefit from the AI transition, and our take on whether benefits from AI may accrue more to capital than labor.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Must Read Research: Weather & Commodity Risks; Fed Hikes; EU Trade Dynamics and Evolving Consumers

This week, we track how weather disruptions from El Niño may ripple through commodity markets that are already on edge, how sticky inflation and strong labor data could prompt unexpected Fed rate hikes, and how consumers are turning to Chinese autos, secondhand and off-price retail as they contend with these higher prices.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Summit, yen-tervention, & US rates

Please join Mark Cabana in discussion with Adarsh Sinha & Meghan Swiber to discuss the US-China summit, yen intervention, & US rates. We will cover FX views in context of US-China summit & recent yen interventions / USD flows + US rate views after recent inflation data & new Fed Chair Warsh.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

K-shaped housing: regional and segment divergence emerges from inventory reset

Don't shut the door yet; housing supply discipline turning
Consistent with the U.S. economy as a whole, the housing and building products markets are stronger in the high end, and weaker in the entry-level. Regionally, there are shades of this as well. Our new housing heatmap shows that the New York and San Francisco metro areas are among the strongest. Rafe discusses the drivers behind the regional disparities, the importance of supply and how certain markets that have been dealing with excess supply may get a bit of relief as builders are demonstrating discipline. Rafe also compares fundamentals for homebuilders to those for building product companies and why exposure to less discretionary projects like roofing can make certain building product companies attractive investments. Finally, we touch on housing policy where many potential solutions have been floated but where challenges persist. We discuss why meaningful action so far has been limited, partly due to structural dynamics
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Must Read Research: World Cup, Higher Oil Prices, and Mega IPOs

Welcome to Must Read Research on BofA Global Research Unlocked. In this podcast, we offer quick summaries from the prior week’s most interesting and impactful research. This week, we focus on the human and technological engine behind the World Cup, the rising cash flow bolstering big oil, and an IPO supply wave that's preparing its debut.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
 

Payroll call

Please join Ralf Preusser in discussion with Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Alex Cohen and Shruti Mishra to review the US payroll report. The US labor market remains central to the outlook for US monetary policy and therefore also a key driver for US rates and the dollar.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Conflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash

Energy buyers to rethink supply lines
With energy stocks off recent highs, Jean Ann joins the podcast to discuss what may be ahead and why she believes that cash flow generation at Integrated oil companies, boosted by the higher trading range for crude, make several of them attractive investments. We also discuss longer term impacts from the war, including how we're likely to see more interest in US LNG contracts from more countries, greater interest in building strategic reserves and increased interest in renewables and storage. We detail the compelling outlook for US pipelines, where capex growth was heading higher well before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Lastly, we touch on whether we could see significant oil production increases in Venezuela and Iran over the longer term and whether US integrated oil companies are poised to benefit.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Policy Derby: Rates for the Roses

In this episode, we discuss central bank meeting takeaways and market implications. We discuss the Fed’s and Bank of Canada’s shift in tone, plus the groundwork for hikes from the European Central Bank and Bank of England. We also cover the Bank of Japan’s delayed hike and the implications for the June meeting. Finally, we recap some recent work across regions on global plumbing and funding markets.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.