K-shaped housing: regional and segment divergence emerges from inventory reset

Don't shut the door yet; housing supply discipline turning

Consistent with the U.S. economy as a whole, the housing and building products markets are stronger in the high end, and weaker in the entry-level. Regionally, there are shades of this as well. Our new housing heatmap shows that the New York and San Francisco metro areas are among the strongest. Rafe discusses the drivers behind the regional disparities, the importance of supply and how certain markets that have been dealing with excess supply may get a bit of relief as builders are demonstrating discipline. Rafe also compares fundamentals for homebuilders to those for building product companies and why exposure to less discretionary projects like roofing can make certain building product companies attractive investments. Finally, we touch on housing policy where many potential solutions have been floated but where challenges persist. We discuss why meaningful action so far has been limited, partly due to structural dynamics

 

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