High yield boom can get loud with election clarity but rates must cooperate

HY issuance recovers but net new credit largely absent

Spreads in the US high yield market are near the tightest levels ever, providing a constructive read on the US economy. Tight spreads and lower rates have led to a pickup in HY issuance, which recently approached more normal levels, but that has since slowed as rates moved up. And much of the issuance seen has been used for refinancing. The positive is that there could be another leg for issuance as companies sell debt to finance capex or acquisitions. This is the Fed transmission mechanism at work. Oleg discusses the impediments to such a shift and the implications of getting the election behind us. We also discuss private credit, how rapid growth in that market impacts high yield and where Oleg sees the best opportunities.

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