Global Research Unlocked

Stablecoins; not your brothers’ digital asset

Stablecoins offer opportunities and pose risks
Potential for increased adoption of stablecoins and implications for the banking sector has become a hot topic among investors given the push among policymakers. Eventually, consumers might be able to buy dollar-linked stablecoins and potentially earn interest on these assets, meaning more competition for bank deposits. There are regulatory hurdles that first need to be cleared but Congress is currently considering a few proposals that could bring this closer to reality. While the use case beyond cross-border payments seem limited at the moment, the potential for non-banks (Big Tech / Big Retails) to come up with creative solutions to induce adoption poses risks. That said, potential for banks to issue a stablecoin once the regulatory framework is in place could mitigate risks, Ebrahim Poonawala discusses these issues as we delve into stablecoins, the areas where they could be particularly helpful to consumers and how, if adoption winds up being significant, they could impact everything from US Treasury demand to loan funding, to payment fees.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Stimulative aspect of fiscal plan could be at least partially offset by rates

Long end of Tsy curve faces supply/demand imbalance
As tariff fears have moved to the background, a different economic concern has moved to the foreground-growing fiscal deficits and the impact on interest rates. Public debt-to-GDP stood at 98% last year and is set to rise further. We discuss why deficits have captured the market's attention today and whether growth aspects of the budget plan could be offset by the higher interest rates. While the boost to growth isn't large, certain groups should see benefits. This includes senior citizens, also business investment may benefit later in the year, especially if tariff uncertainty has peaked. The US Rate Strategy team believes that a mismatch of demand and supply of Treasuries at the long end of the curve could lead to more cheapening of Treasuries, meaning that the 30Y yield could move further above swap rates. In theory, the recent Moody's downgrade of the US' credit rating could lead Congress to a more balanced budget and but on that, our guests were skeptical.
 
As tariff fears have moved to the background, a different economic concern has moved to the foreground-growing fiscal deficits and the impact on interest rates. Public debt-to-GDP stood at 98% last year and is set to rise further. We discuss why deficits have captured the market's attention today and whether growth aspects of the budget plan could be offset by the higher interest rates. While the boost to growth isn't large, certain groups should see benefits. This includes senior citizens, also business investment may benefit later in the year, especially if tariff uncertainty has peaked. The US Rate Strategy team believes that a mismatch of demand and supply of Treasuries at the long end of the curve could lead to more cheapening of Treasuries, meaning that the 30Y yield could move further above swap rates. In theory, the recent Moody's downgrade of the US' credit rating could lead Congress to a more balanced budget and but on that, our guests were skeptical.

Next big smart device could be right in front of your eyes

Smart glasses may weigh on phone sales, lift Internet use
Smart glasses could be the next big opportunity in personal technology. Leading tech companies are focused on the form factor and functionality like augmented reality and 4K video may follow today's applications, which include AI assistants, music playback, phone calls and hands-free texting. Ultimately, these devices could stretch out the smart phone replacement cycle, like phones have managed to stretch the replacement cycle for laptops. In the 2030s, we could even see a world where smart glasses are the default personal device. But while there could be big changes ahead, that doesn't mean that hardware and software incumbents are about to be disrupted. Wamsi Mohan discusses why he believes incumbents have a major advantage in smart glasses and much of it comes down to control of the ecosystem. There's risk for incumbent Internet companies too but many of them have proven adept at adjusting business models in the past and the new form factor could even enhance business models as Internet use rises further.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Sentiment is sour, but structural reasons to expect USD weakness to continue

USD overweight exposure is now normalizing
Even as equities have rallied substantially from April lows, recovery in the dollar index, or DXY, has underwhelmed and the currency sits near the lowest level it's been in three years. Alex Cohen believes that while there are cyclical reasons for the dollar weakness, there's also been a bigger structural rethink on the currency by investors from the push toward de-globalization and from questions around US exceptionalism. Alex sees German fiscal reforms as a game changer, another dollar negative. But our own survey shows very negative sentiment for the dollar, which is relevant to the short term. Mark Cabana contributes with a discussion of rates given the important interplay between the Treasuries and currencies. Mark believes that there has been a shift away from US Treasuries by global investors, although a lot of this recent shift is a function of investors reducing their overweight position rather than getting outright negative. Mark also discusses debt sustainability concerns and how budget negotiations may impact bonds going forward.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
 

Medtech transfer pricing, a device for lower tax but higher tariffs

Looming tariffs lead to renewed focus on transfer pricing
Multinational companies have used transfer pricing as a way to reduce tax bills. Transferring a product from a lower tax jurisdiction allows profits to be taxed at the lower corporate rate, so a higher price can mean greater tax savings. But tariffs would be based on the higher price, meaning that some of the same companies using this practice to lower tax bills will also face higher levies. Travis Steed discusses what this means for medtech, the impact transfer pricing has had on tax rates, whether practices could change under a tariff regime and why the group is still a compelling, defensive investment
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Junk food nation increasingly lifting “workout” shakes

Budget conscious consumers indulge in healthier foods
There's been a shift in snacking towards healthier options and away from some of the convenience store classics. A stretched consumer seeking value for their dollar seems to be allocating spend to cleaner alternatives. These often contain more protein and less of what's perceived as harmful. Rising GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) usage may be a minor contributor to these shifts too, though it's likely that more of this impact is ahead of us as penetration of these drugs rises and oral options arrive. Outside of food, alcohol consumption has fallen, creating structural headwinds industries like beer. Pete Galbo discusses trends and what these shifts mean for his coverage. Mike Dick, Consumer Sector Specialist, who is not a member of the research department, joins in to ask a few questions.
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Europe answers on defense spending, leading to questions on US impact

Euro defense spend benefits US contractors near-term
European plans to spend more on defense as a percentage of GDP were hatched in the immediate aftermath of the Ukraine invasion. More recently, the German Parliament agreed to reforms that allow for even more spending on defense. But for a number of reasons, Europe would like to keep more of this spending within the Euro Area. Ron Epstein and Ben Heelan discuss what Europe may be able to procure internally and what they'll be buying from US contractors. And if the US is spending less on defending Europe, Ron addresses where spending priorities may shift, especially as the US may be less focused on preparing for a land war. Ron also tackles the question of whether Europe may be encouraged to buy more defense gear in exchange for lower tariffs.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
 

Tech-forward Dubai a compelling backdrop for discussions on AI, Blockchain

Dubai is embracing tech, should investors embrace AI?
Our Global Investment Summit in Dubai offered attendees some perspective on what Dubai and the UAE are doing to advance AI. Panels also offered a look at how the technology is being used beyond the borders of the UAE and threats it brings. Sonali Thiesen, Global Head of FICC e-Trading and Markets Strategic Investments and Haim Israel were panelists at the Summit. Haim discusses the critical role that cybersecurity will play as AI evolves. He shares feedback and key ideas from his "World in 2030" note and addresses recent weakness in AI equities. Sonali discusses the continued shift to electronification in the fixed income markets, how machine learning continues to play a growing role in those markets and how Gen AI and blockchain have the potential to generate additional efficiencies.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.